UK Cattle and Sheep Numbers Fall, but Beef and Lamb Prices Remain Strong

UK beef and sheep numbers have continued to contract, but livestock prices remain firm thanks to tight supplies, according to new Defra census data.

The total UK cattle herd fell by 1.3% over the past year to 9.3 million head, driven largely by a 4.1% decline in the beef breeding herd, now at 1.3 million head. In contrast, the dairy breeding herd saw a slight rise to 1.8 million, making up nearly 60% of all breeding cattle.

Despite shrinking numbers, cattle prices have held up. Prime cattle averaged 379p/kg liveweight in mid‑December, while deadweight steers traded just above 650p/kg. Auctioneers say supplies remain tight, with high fodder and transport costs adding pressure across the sector.

Industry analysts suggest there may be some longer‑term recovery ahead. The AHDB reports an increase in cattle under one year old, driven by more dairy‑beef animals entering the system — a trend that could boost supplies into 2027–28. Quality Meat Scotland also forecasts a modest rebound in throughput, supported by this year’s larger calf crop.

The sheep sector has seen similar contraction. Total sheep and lamb numbers dropped 1.7% to 30.5 million head, with the breeding flock falling to 14.8 million — its lowest level in 15 years. Lamb numbers under one year old hit their lowest point since records began in 1984, at 14.78 million.

Analysts attribute the decline to poor ewe condition, challenging weather during tupping, and the growing impact of bluetongue, which has affected fertility in both ewes and lambs. The smaller lamb crop has tightened supply and supported prices in recent months.

Livestock Auctioneers Association executive Chris Dodds said the live auction system continues to “prove its worth” amid uncertainty, while QMS analysts warn that global supply constraints and shifting production cycles will shape market conditions heading into 2026.